US Stocks Likely To Open In Red After Christmas Break But Analysts Still Expect A Santa Rally Into The New Year
U.S. stock futures declined on Thursday after a break for Christmas on Wednesday. All four index futures slipped in early trade.
The S&P 500 index is on its way to registering a robust 20% plus return for the second consecutive year in 2024, as most analysts expect a Santa Rally.
The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.62% and 4.35%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31, 2025 decision was at 91.4%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | -0.42% |
| S&P 500 | -0.43% |
| Dow Jones | -0.41% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.43% |
In premarket trading on Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was down 0.49% to $598.36 and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 0.47% to $527.45, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From The Last Session
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, kicking off the traditional Santa Rally. All major indices and sectors finished the shortened pre-Christmas trading session in the green.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.1%, extending its winning streak to three consecutive days following the volatile Federal Reserve meeting last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.91%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 1.37%, nearly recouping last week’s losses.
Consumer discretionary stocks, the top-performing sector this year, led the rally. Trading volumes were light but Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) surged 7.35%, its strongest single-day gain since November. Other notable performers in the S&P 500 included Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) up 2.5%, Starbucks Corp (NYSE:SBUX) up 2.8%, and Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) up 2.27%.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1.35% | 20,031.13 |
| S&P 500 | 1.10% | 6,040.04 |
| Dow Jones | 0.91% | 43,297.03 |
| Russell 2000 | 1.00% | 2,259.85 |
Insights From Analysts
Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates had said that Jerome Powell's hawkish stance did not inspire confidence. However, he believes that “A Santa Claus rally was subsequently sparked by the November PCE report, so the stock market is rallying into Christmas and should also rally into the New Year.”
“There is not a lot of economic news this week, but the good news is non-defense capital goods orders rose by 0.7% and have risen 2.1%, so there is a ‘green shoot’ in the durable goods report. The Commerce Department reported that durable goods declined 1.1% in November due largely to a 12% decline in defense orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders declined by a more modest 0.1%,” he added.
According to Bespoke Investment Group “The S&P has traded above its 200-DMA all year. This has happened 11 other times since 1952, and the next-year move has been about half the average. The last time this happened was in 2021, and before that, 2017.”
According to Wells Fargo, “The outlook for 2025 is riddled with uncertainty.” The note also added that “Ascertaining what level of policy restraint achieves the careful balance of keeping inflation in check and easing stress on interest-rate sensitive sectors will dominate the monetary policy discussion come 2025.”
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Upcoming Economic Data
A few important data points remain to be released in this truncated week that will help investors determine the future course of action.
- On Thursday, initial jobless claims data till Dec. 21 will announced at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- On Friday, November’s data for the advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, advanced retail inventories, and advanced wholesale inventories will be announced at 8:30 a.m., ET.
Stocks In Focus:
- Color Star Technology Co Ltd (NASDAQ:ADD) was up 103.70% in premarket after it announced that a prominent member of the UAE's royal family, has joined the company as an independent director.
- Amplitech Group Inc (NASDAQ:AMPG) was up 15.35% and has risen by 81.17% over the last five sessions after it entered into agreements with institutional investors for a registered direct offering, raising $3.1 million before fees and expenses.
- Rigetti Computing, Inc (NASDAQ:RGTI) was up 1.5% after the launch of its 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system, a quantum computer featuring an extensive hardware redesign that enables superior performance.
- Zoomcar Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:ZCAR) was up 102.09% after it reported a 43% year-on-year growth in bookings for November 2024, primarily driven by increased wedding season demand.
- Hour Loop Inc (NASDAQ:HOUR) was down 36.36%, Direct Digital Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:DRCT) was down 31.27% and Baosheng Media Group Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:BAOS) was down 28.87%.
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were higher in the early New York session by 0.61% to hover around $70.53 per barrel.
The gold spot index was up by 0.36% to $2,645.11 per ounce. The Dollar Index was down 0.09% to 108.155 level.
Most Asian Markets ended Thursday on a Mixed note.
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